22-Dec - Week opening

So this weekend was good, being off from my main job is always nice and relaxing. Of course with trading being my latest obsession, I have had a lot of monitor time. Of course this is all between Xmas shopping, time with the family and holiday parties.

I had a small epiphany last week on price action for the day based on a couple of different candle times. I ended up turning this into an EA and Indicator. The first version of this was not good, and was error prone if any candles was missing, but luckily there was another function I could learn and use that automatically finds the candle. Now I am testing it on my demo account. Of course since the first version was in error, one of my initial trades was also in error, but I closed it (for a loss) and opened a trade in the correct direction.

I will only be posting my manual trades, as this is my main system. Here are my manual trades for today, I am a little nervous because these pairs usually trade in the same directiion yet i have opposing trades out and its a holiday week.
EURUSD buy @ 1.4004, SL 1.3947(Barry's support level), TP @1.4100(Built in resistance)
GBPUSD sell @ 1.4797, SL 1.4839(above my fib 50, was previous up candles high), TP @ 1.4700 (Built in resistance)

Summary of week ending 19-Dec

Since tomorrow is Friday and I am now on vacation, I decided that my official trading week is over. Overall I would say a fairly successful week. I started the week with $10522, and ended with 13316, a 26% increase in account value. I am also testing a new strategy that allows me to trade in any market condition, but for small pips (scalping). This, if works out, will just be another tool in the garage.

Here are my major lessons learned:

• Even though the new style worked out, I tested a new strategy on my "live" (I know its a demo, but its my official account for now) account. I need to test new strategies on a separate account before introducing it into the main account

• Markets Reverse, if you see all trending in the same direction, stick your toes in, dont buy all the pairs
• Even if you are up big for the day, why risk/waste your money on risky trades. Stick to your plan.
• Always check your lot size before you execute.
• Once you say you are out for the day especially after a decent move in the market, stay out and let the market fix itself. Reenter when things are more calm.

Here is the weekly statement:

Details:
Gross Profit:		4996.98		Gross Loss:				2 200.95	Total Net Profit:			2 796.03
Profit Factor:		2.27		Expected Payoff:				99.86
Absolute Drawdown:		0.00		Maximal Drawdown:				997.51 (7.08%)	Relative Drawdown:			7.08% (997.51)
Total Trades:		28		Short Positions (won %):				13 (61.54%)	Long Positions (won %):			15 (73.33%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								19 (67.86%)	Loss trades (% of total):			9 (32.14%)
Largest		profit trade:						550.00	loss trade:			-495.00
Average		profit trade:						263.00	loss trade:			-244.55
Maximum		consecutive wins ($):						7 (1 393.13)	consecutive losses ($):			4 (-934.98)
Maximal		consecutive profit (count):						1 457.00 (4)	consecutive loss (count):			-934.98 (4)
Average		consecutive wins:						3	consecutive losses:			2

Plans for next week:

1. ENJOY MYSELF. It is the holidays and I am on vacation. Trading will only happen when i have time.
   
2. My ODL Demo is going to expire so I am going to renew. This time, I am going to trade with a $2000usd sized account. This is my plans for initial funding so I might as well get used to it.
   
3. Continue trading my system, learning better entrance strategies.
   
4. Refine my trailing stop strategy, I think I could have gained another 100 pips if my trailing stop strategy was better.
5. 
   

The USDJPY orders I had opened , yes I opened an addtional order (Sell@ 87.72), ended up closing at 87.64, I ended up with +44 pips for Wednesday total of + 522.

Now the bad new...All of my standard trades this morning got stopped. It seems as the USD has hit a turning point.
Here are my closed trades for the day so far. Sorry for no live updates.
EURUSD sell @ 1.4663, TP at 1.4623, + 40 pips (this was a TRO style trade)
GBPUSD buy @ 1.5380, SL at 1.5345, - 35pipss
USDCHF sell @ 1.0567, SL at 1.0581, -14 pips
EURUSD buy @ 1.4561, SL at 1.4481, - 80 pips
USDJPY sell @ 88.21, SL at 89.00, - 79 pips
USDCHF buy @ 1.0704, Trailing stop at 1.0754, + 50 pips

Pip total so far today -118

Lesson so far:
1. even tho the EURUSD TRO style worked out, I still tested a new strategy on my account. I need to test on a seperate account before introducing
2. Markets Reverse, if you see all trending in the same direction, stick your feet in

On another note, I am trying out a new strategy for some semi scalping, so far 2 trades up and 1 trade lost on another account.

TTFN

17-Dec p5

Ok, so the last GPDUSD that I made did not pan out.
GPDUSD, Stopped @15440 -100pips.

Lessons - I did not feel confident in this trade, but made it anyway. Since I was up for the day in big way I risked the money, but probably should not have.


USDJPY was looking desirable, the current prices were in the middle of the LRC and Shi, I think this marked the end of the past runs retracement.

USDJPY sell @87.72, SL at 88.25 (Previous support on barrys), TP at 87.00 with a 45 trailing stop

17-Dec p4

Well, the day ceases to amaze me.
.3 lot EURUSD, T/P at 1.4300 + 215pips
.5 lot of GBPUSD, Trailing stop at 1.5468 + 85 pips

The .3 lot is still open as the trailing stop did not get hit yet.

Update:
.3 lot GBPUSD, trailing stop at 1.15532 + 139pips

Total pips for the day, 584 pips

17-Dec P3

Lots of action today, Maybe I need to figure out a better T/P level, but for now, its ok as long as I can watch the market.

Anyway, I entered the USDCHF, and decided to exit, I did not like where everything was at
USDCHF sell @ 1.0997, close at 1.1002, - 5 pips

My Second GBP was Trailing stopped
GBPUSD, Trailing stop at 1.5400, + 64 pips

Once I saw the price looked like it was going to come back around, I opened another .3 lot, when meaning to open a .5 lot. Lesson learned, make sure lot size is right

Anyway, here are my two open GBP trades
.3 lots GBPUSD, buy @ 1.5393, S/L at 1.5343 (50 fib on m15), T/P still at 1.5800 with a 45pt trailing
.5 lots GBPUSD, buy @ 1.5383, S/L at 1.5343 (50 fib on m15), T/P still at 1.5800 with a 45pt trailing

17-Dec p2

Ok, so now its time for my other setups. Looking at the JPY and the CHF, I do not see an opportunity, everything is bouncing of the LRC and Shi_true at the line in the direction of my trade. I do see some potential in the EURUSD, but there is some resistance in the 1.4166 range. I have placed a buy stop order at a decent amount over the resistance so that if the price does break, I hopefully catch and upswing. This trade is .3 lots because of the big S/L

EURUSD, Buy stop @ 1.4185, SL at 1.41030, TP at 1.4300 (natural resistance level)

17-Dec

So for those of us that were not in GBP overnight, it looks like we had an early Xmas present. I happened to log in around 730am today, and found a huge downward movement on the GBPUSD. I looked around at the news and did not find anything substantial that would cause this to happen, so I decided to enter a buy position. I was lucky enough to get in about 30 pips from the bottom, after I noticed some resistance.

GPDUSD, buy @ 1.5276, S/L @ ~1.5200 (I dont remember the logic probably just enough to keep my losses at 3% if I was wrong), TP @ 1.5500.

I ended up moving my TP to 1.5800 and putting a 45pt trailing stop.
Position was closed at 1.5362 + 86 pips

Since I saw the downswing that closed me out as temporary, I decided to re-enter the trade,

GBPUSD, buy at 1.5346, SL at 1.5309, TP at 1.5800 with a 45pip trailing stop.

16-Dec p4.

So I could not resist, but this time I got burned. I saw the movement that started happening around 3:30 so I decided to enter into one trade. I got in late like around 4:15 and got stopped out

Sell USDCHF @ 1.1190, SL @ 1.1241, - 51 pips.

Lesson learned, once you say you are out for the day especially after a decent move, stay out and let the market fix itself. Reenter when things are more calm.

Pips for the day down to +172 for the day. Still not shabby, and glad I learned another lesson.

16-Dec P.3

Well, the rate cut was more than expected. Even before the large move, I had my EUR and CHF hit a trailing stop.

USDCHF, Trailing stop at 1.1406, + 50 pips
EURUSD, trailing stop at 1.3805, + 56 pips
GBPUSD, hit T/P at 1.5400 + 105 Pips
USDJPY (finally), Trailing stop at 89.38 + 46 Pips

I did open an new EURUSD as the price was going up. Probably should have not entered, but I could not resist. To protect my money I decided to put a small Trailing stop, and a S/L at on about 30 pips..
This trade was opened at 1.3958, and Trailing stop hit at 1.3962, + 4 pips.

Thats it for me for the day, unless I see something later.

My total pips today was +223, not bad IMO.

16-Dec P.2

All of the above except that JP were stopped.
EURUSD Trailing stop hit at 1.3740 + 7 Pips
USDCHF Trailing stop hit at 1.1780 + 13 Pips
GPBUSD SL at 1.5297 - 58 pips.

One lesson learned, get a price target, then utilize the trailing stop. I ended up re-entering the EUR and CHF, loosing out on about 6 pips per pair.

Here are my newl opened pairs. I still see no reasy for things not to work out:
EURUSD, buy @ 1.3749, SL @ 1.3702 (Barry's resist, just below Fib 50), TP at 1.3800 (Built in resistance becauuse of round number)

USDCHF, sell @ 1.1456, SL @ 1.1500 (Fib 50.0), TP at 1.1400 (Built in resistance becauuse of round number)

USDCHF, buy @ 1.5295, SL @ 1.5230 (Retrace low), TP at 1.5400 (Built in resistance becauuse of round number)

16-Dec P.1

So I did not open any other orders yesterday, I saw that the USD pairs were pretty much hovering and figured I would wait for some movement. I hit my TP on the USDJPY, so I ended up taking 56pips, which put my +14 for the pair for the day. My 15-Dec total was up 169 pip.

This morning, it looks like the market is heading in the same direction. The news in EU looked mixed, but it seems the Fed is going to lower the overnight rate for banks again. Also, the stagnation trend that started mid-day yesterday seems to be broken this morning.

Here are my current positions that I entered around 9amEST
USDCHF Sell @ 1.1493, S/L @ 1.1583 (R of current trend), Trailing stop
USDJPY Sell @ 89.94, S/L @ 90.36 (Fib 100), Trailing stop
EURUSD Buy @ 1.3733, S/L @ 1.3689 (Fib 50), Trailing stop
GBPUSD Buy @ 1.5355, S/L @ 1.5297 (Barry Support), Trailing stop

15-Dec - Closed 1st set , opening and watching second

The 1st set of trades closed.
EURUSD - Closed at 1.3676 + 110pip - Trailing stop caught
USDCHF - closed at 1.1601 + 45 pips - Trailing stop
USDJPY - Closed at 90.75 - 42 pips - stop loss

The ended up spiking at 90.76 and is now in a downtrend again. I do not feel this trade was in error, just one of those things. Looks like if the price moves down I will regrain all but 14 pips of the loss. Currently I am up 3 pips, so we will see.

I re-entered USDJPY at 90.61 - SL at 91.05 - Trailing stop at 35p points, but expect around 90.05. I will probably change this to a trailing stop.

The EUR and CHD look like they are in retracement now, and I am looking for re-entry at about 1.3595 (buy) and 1.1630(Sell) respectively.

First set of trades open for 15-Dec

So this morning it looks like the dollar is weakening. At 9am the TIC long-term purchase news was negative. To be honest, I am not sure what this is, but on Forexfactory its marked as an important report, and the expectations were 40B, and the numbers came out at 1.5b.

Even before this negative news the trend seemed to follow last Thursday's with the dollar loosing ground on all of the majors, so I put some fibs on my chart, and here is what my orders were, they were all .5 lots. Looking back, I should have set the lots to less for EURUSD and USDCHF since I am trading outside of my 3-4% comfort zone.
USDJPY - Sell at 90.33- SL att 90.75 - TP range 89.15 (But will change to 25 trailing)
EURUSD - Buy at 1.3566 - SL at 1.3498 - 25pip Trailing stop
USDCHF - Sell at 1.1646 - SL at 1.1740 - 25pip trailing

Lessons Learned for the week ending 12-Dec-08

I decided that I would rehash my "lessons learned" for the week. Being a new trader, if I am not learning lessons from my trading, I am either not trading enough or do not recognize the weakness's in my trading technique.

For me this past week was one of mixed reviews. I was down almost $2000, however on a single EA trade I was down $3000, so on manual trading I was up about $1000. That being said most of the recovery I made was on Thursday night and Friday. I also switched my trading method from the "Baby Pips" with Shi and LR channels to more of a price action using only Fibonacci retracement, and S&R points. One of the major reasons was that in my old system when the pairs were moving in a directional basis, my entry signals were very far and few between and generally not correct. Even though the trading numbers did not show it, I think this week was valuable. Anyway, here were my major takeaways:

1. I prefer trading on price action as opposed to just using indicators. I feel more in control of my trade.
   
2. Money Management - In the beginning of the week I allowed my account to take 5 - 10% SL's in the hopes of gaining 30 pips. Now I will put the stop loss where I think it should be and control my money management by the size of lots. So if on a full lot trade, I have a 60 pip SL, then I must only trade 1/2 lot. This will keep my account in the 3% range.
3. Even an EA that is profitable most of the time will lose. In my case, the EA did not have a stop loss, and never hit its own selling signal. I closed 1 trade for a loss of $3000. Make sure your EA follows your MM, and test your EAs for 2 months on a demo account.
   
4. Only trade in the direction of the trend. If you stop out, and the market has not reversed you can re-enter the trade at the point where you got stopped. (Jacko style for your forexfactory forum readers).
   
5. One good week does not mean the next will be. I had a good week last week (ending 5-Dec), and got hammered this week.
   
6. Wait for trades to come to you, do not "search" for trades. This is one of my weakness's. I am excited to trade, and find myself seeing things that may not be there. Patience pays, it seems.
   

Here is my demo Summary Statement:

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:		0.00		Credit Facility:				0.00
Closed Trade P/L:		-1 884.26		Floating P/L:				0.00	Margin:			0.00
Balance:		10522.20		Equity:				10522.20	Free Margin:			10 522.20

My Trading Plan

Here is my trading plan. It is a work in progress and needs a lot of refinement.

How I Trade

1. I trade off of the. H1 for trade setup.M15, H4 for confirmation
2. Trade on Price movement. Utilizing the Shi Channel, Linear Regression Channel, Barrys Support and Resistance and Fibonacci.
3. Trade after retracement starts and looks like its almost complete.
4. Looking for (re)entrance in the .382 or .500 range.
5. Utilize SL on a previous resistance level (ex, if entrance at .382 use .500 as SL)
6. Trade in the direction of the market
7. Trade only on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF. Main focus on EURUSD, especially for GBP setups. No COMDolls or blends.
8. Never risk more than 3% on the SL, if I need more pips then I will reduce my lot size

Trading Routine

1. Primarily look for setups around 9am, and through the rest of the US day.
2. Never trade Sunday nights or Friday after noon.
3. Never trade around news.
4. Never trade on Holidays.
5. Check daily news release times before setting up. Use the releases as guidance
   

My Mindset

1. I will see what is on the charts and not what I want to see.
2. No matter how biased I am towards a direction, I will make sure to trade only what my eyes see and not what my feelings tell me.
3. I will not get “revenge” on the market if I lose on a trade.
4. I will not trade when there are no setups. I will be weary when the trends are not being followed.
5. I will not beat myself up if I make a losing trade. Instead I will take it as a learning experience and move on.

My Weakness's

1. Finding trades when they are not there.
2. Trading outside of my normal style.
3. Watching the market too much and second guessing/Hedging myself.
4. Testing new systems on “live account”.
5. EA’s

My Goals

1. Initial goal is to trade for 2 months with demo account and have positive equity.
2. Learn how to trade on price action, being able to understand where the market may go.
3. I will shoot for at least 25% monthly return.
4. Devise EA and test. Never allow too big of draw downs.
5. Read Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition (Hardcover)

Start of my forex Blog

This is the start of my Forex trading journal/blog. I decided to start playing with currency trading about a month ago. I have been trading on demo account for the past 3 weeks and my success is mixed.

Right now I am just about even on a $10,000 demo account, my balance is $10,522. This account had both manual and automatic (EA) trades. The main purpose of this blog will be for me to journal my daily trading. I am really looking to learn from this experience so that I will be able to analyze my mistakes and learn from them.